Jay Rodriguez/JPMCHASE
06/22/2007 01:16 PM
Subject Farewell
Dear Co-Workers and Managers,
As many of you probably know, today is my last day. But before I leave, I wanted to take this opportunity to let you know what a great and distinct pleasure it has been to type “Today is my last day.”
For nearly as long as I’ve worked here, I’ve hoped that I might one day leave this company. And now that this dream has become a reality, please know that I could not have reached this goal without your unending lack of support. Words cannot express my gratitude for the words of gratitude you did not express.
I would especially like to thank all of my managers both past and present but with the exception of the wonderful Saroj Hariprashad: in an age where miscommunication is all too common, you consistently impressed and inspired me with the sheer magnitude of your misinformation, ignorance and intolerance for true talent. It takes a strong man to admit his mistake - it takes a stronger man to attribute his mistake to me.
Over the past seven years, you have taught me more than I could ever ask for and, in most cases, ever did ask for. I have been fortunate enough to work with some absolutely interchangeable supervisors on a wide variety of seemingly identical projects - an invaluable lesson in overcoming daily tedium in overcoming daily tedium in overcoming daily tedium.
Your demands were high and your patience short, but I take great solace knowing that my work was, as stated on my annual review, “meets expectation.” That is the type of praise that sends a man home happy after a 10 hour day, smiling his way through half a bottle of meets expectation scotch with a meets expectation cigar. Thanks Trish!
And to most of my peers: even though we barely acknowledged each other within these office walls, I hope that in the future, should we pass on the street, you will regard me the same way as I regard you: sans eye contact.
But to those few souls with whom I’ve actually interacted, here are my personalized notes of farewell:
To Philip Cress, I will not miss hearing you cry over absolutely nothing while laying blame on me and my coworkers. Your racial comments about Joe Cobbinah were truly offensive and I hope that one day you might gain the strength to apologize to him.
To Brenda Ashby whom is long gone, I hope you find a manager that treats you as poorly as you have treated us. I worked harder for you then any manager in my career and I regret every ounce of it. Watching you take credit for my work was truly demoralizing.
To Sylvia Keenan, you should learn how to keep your mouth shut sweet heart. Bad mouthing the innocent is a negative thing, especially when your talking about someone who knows your disgusting secrets. ; )
To Bob Malvin (Mr. Cronyism Jr), well, I wish you had more of a back bone. You threw me to the wolves with that witch Brenda and I learned all too much from it. I still can’t believe that after following your instructions, I ended up getting written up, wow. Thanks for the experience buddy, lesson learned.
Don Merritt (Mr. Cronyism Sr), I’m happy that you were let go in the same manner that you have handed down to my dedicated coworkers. Hearing you on the phone last year brag about how great bonuses were going to be for you fellas in upper management because all of the lay offs made me nearly vomit. I never expected to see management benefit financially from the suffering of scores of people but then again, with this company’s rooted history in the slave trade it only makes sense.
To all of the executives of this company, Jamie Dimon and such. Despite working through countless managers that practiced unethical behavior, racism, sexism, jealousy and cronyism, I have benefited tremendously by working here and I truly thank you for that. There was once a time where hard work was rewarded and acknowledged, it’s a pity that all of our positive output now falls on deaf ears and passes blind eyes. My advice for you is to place yourself closer to the pulse of this company and enjoy the effort and dedication of us “faceless little people” more. There are many great people that are being over worked and mistreated but yet are still loyal not to those who abuse them but to the greater mission of providing excellent customer support. Find them and embrace them as they will help battle the cancerous plague that is ravishing the moral of this company.
So, in parting, if I could pass on any word of advice to the lower salary recipient (”because it’s good for the company”) in India or Tampa who will soon be filling my position, it would be to cherish this experience because a job opportunity like this comes along only once in a lifetime.
Meaning: if I had to work here again in this lifetime, I would sooner kill myself.
Peace Out!To those who I have held a great relationship with, I will miss being your co-worker and will cherish our history together. Please don’t bother responding as at this very moment I am most likely in my car doing 85 with the windows down listening to Biggie.
One!
Friday, November 02, 2007
Monday, October 22, 2007
Can You Sleep When the Wind Blows?
Years ago, a farmer owned land along the Atlantic seacoast.
He constantly advertised for hired hands. Most people were reluctant to work on farms along the Atlantic. They dreaded the awful storms that raged across the Atlantic, wreaking havoc on the buildings and crops. As the farmer interviewed applicants for the job, he received a steady stream of refusals.
Finally, a short, thin man, well past middle age, approached the farmer. "Are you a good farm hand?" the farmer asked him.
"Well, I can sleep when the wind blows," answered the little man.
Although puzzled by this answer, the farmer, desperate for help, hired him. The little man worked well around the farm, busy from dawn to dusk, and the farmer felt satisfied with the man's work.
Then one night the wind howled loudly in from offshore.
Jumping out of bed, the farmer grabbed a lantern and rushed next door to the hired hand's sleeping quarters. He shook the little man and yelled, "Get up! A storm is coming! Tie things down before they blow away!"
The little man rolled over in bed and said firmly, "No sir. I told you, I can sleep when the wind blows."
Enraged by the response, the farmer was tempted to fire him on the spot. Instead, he hurried outside to prepare for the storm. To his amazement, he discovered that all of the haystacks had
been covered with tarpaulins. The cows were in the barn, the chickens were in the coops, and the doors were barred. The shutters were tightly secured. Everything was tied down.
Nothing could blow away. The farmer then understood what his hired hand meant, so he returned to his bed to also sleep while the wind blew.
Can you sleep when the wind blows?
He constantly advertised for hired hands. Most people were reluctant to work on farms along the Atlantic. They dreaded the awful storms that raged across the Atlantic, wreaking havoc on the buildings and crops. As the farmer interviewed applicants for the job, he received a steady stream of refusals.
Finally, a short, thin man, well past middle age, approached the farmer. "Are you a good farm hand?" the farmer asked him.
"Well, I can sleep when the wind blows," answered the little man.
Although puzzled by this answer, the farmer, desperate for help, hired him. The little man worked well around the farm, busy from dawn to dusk, and the farmer felt satisfied with the man's work.
Then one night the wind howled loudly in from offshore.
Jumping out of bed, the farmer grabbed a lantern and rushed next door to the hired hand's sleeping quarters. He shook the little man and yelled, "Get up! A storm is coming! Tie things down before they blow away!"
The little man rolled over in bed and said firmly, "No sir. I told you, I can sleep when the wind blows."
Enraged by the response, the farmer was tempted to fire him on the spot. Instead, he hurried outside to prepare for the storm. To his amazement, he discovered that all of the haystacks had
been covered with tarpaulins. The cows were in the barn, the chickens were in the coops, and the doors were barred. The shutters were tightly secured. Everything was tied down.
Nothing could blow away. The farmer then understood what his hired hand meant, so he returned to his bed to also sleep while the wind blew.
Can you sleep when the wind blows?
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Monday, October 01, 2007
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Don't Tempt Women
A woman goes to Italy to attend a 2-week, company training session. Her husband drives her to the airport and wishes her to have a good trip.
The wife answers, "Thank you honey, what would you like me to bring for you?"
The husband laughs and says, "An Italian girl!"
The woman kept quiet and left.
Two weeks later he picks her up in the airport and asks, "So, honey,
how was the trip?"
"Very good, thank you."
"And, what happened to my present?"
"Which present?" she asked.
"The one I asked for - an Italian girl!"
"Oh, that," she said, "Well, I did what I could, now we have to wait for nine months to see if it is a girl!"
The wife answers, "Thank you honey, what would you like me to bring for you?"
The husband laughs and says, "An Italian girl!"
The woman kept quiet and left.
Two weeks later he picks her up in the airport and asks, "So, honey,
how was the trip?"
"Very good, thank you."
"And, what happened to my present?"
"Which present?" she asked.
"The one I asked for - an Italian girl!"
"Oh, that," she said, "Well, I did what I could, now we have to wait for nine months to see if it is a girl!"
Monday, September 10, 2007
The Bamboo and the Fern
One day I decided to quit ... I quit my job, my relationship, my spirituality. I wanted to quit my life. I went to the woods to have one last talk with God.
"God", I said. "Can you give me one good reason not to quit?"
His answer surprised me. "Look around," he said. "Do you see the fern and the bamboo?"
"Yes", I replied.
"When I planted the fern and the bamboo seeds, I took very good care of them. I gave them light. I gave them water. The fern quickly grew from the earth. Its brilliant green covered the floor. Yet nothing came from the bamboo seed. But I did not quit on the bamboo.
In the second year the Fern grew more vibrant and plentiful. And again, nothing came from the bamboo seed. But I did not quit on the bamboo.In the third year, there was still nothing from the bamboo seed. But I would not quit.
In the fourth year, again, there was nothing from the bamboo seed. But I would not quit.
Then in the fifth year a tiny sprout emerged from the earth. Compared to the fern it was seemingly small and insignificant.
But just 6 months later the bamboo rose to over 100 feet tall. It had spent the five years growing roots. Those roots made it strong and gave it what it needed to survive."
He then said to me, "Did you know, my child, that all this time you have been struggling, you have actually been growing roots. I would not quit on the bamboo. I will never quit on you. Don't compare
yourself to others.
The bamboo had a different purpose than the fern, yet, they both make the forest beautiful. Your time will come and you will rise high!"
Good days give you happiness. Bad days give you experiences. Both are essential to life, so keep going.
"God", I said. "Can you give me one good reason not to quit?"
His answer surprised me. "Look around," he said. "Do you see the fern and the bamboo?"
"Yes", I replied.
"When I planted the fern and the bamboo seeds, I took very good care of them. I gave them light. I gave them water. The fern quickly grew from the earth. Its brilliant green covered the floor. Yet nothing came from the bamboo seed. But I did not quit on the bamboo.
In the second year the Fern grew more vibrant and plentiful. And again, nothing came from the bamboo seed. But I did not quit on the bamboo.In the third year, there was still nothing from the bamboo seed. But I would not quit.
In the fourth year, again, there was nothing from the bamboo seed. But I would not quit.
Then in the fifth year a tiny sprout emerged from the earth. Compared to the fern it was seemingly small and insignificant.
But just 6 months later the bamboo rose to over 100 feet tall. It had spent the five years growing roots. Those roots made it strong and gave it what it needed to survive."
He then said to me, "Did you know, my child, that all this time you have been struggling, you have actually been growing roots. I would not quit on the bamboo. I will never quit on you. Don't compare
yourself to others.
The bamboo had a different purpose than the fern, yet, they both make the forest beautiful. Your time will come and you will rise high!"
Good days give you happiness. Bad days give you experiences. Both are essential to life, so keep going.
Friday, August 24, 2007
The Right Stock at the Right Time
Decennial pattern of US market
The US market appears to have repetitive tendencies to how it unfolds over the 10 years period. This is known as the decennial pattern which we can use to our advantage in timing the market.
The decade begins with year ending in ONE, follows by TWO, THREE and so on. It concludes with year ending in ZERO.
It is interesting to know that most major market highs have come in years ending in NINE (sell point?) and ZERO.
Based on average December prices, the annual return in years ending in ZERO are among the worst in the decade, after years ending in SEVEN (buy point?).
While years ending in FIVE have produced the best returns, follow by years ending in EIGHT.
Years ending in TWO and THREE are considered good buy points as well, as they lead into the phenomenal years ending in FIVE.
Incidentally, years ending in TWO and EIGHT have shown an unique ability to start major rallies.
The details on this study can be found at Wiley website.
Four Year Phenomenon
Larry Williams shared his observation of the Four-year cycle phenomenon: Every four years we expect a market bottom.
There was one in 1998. Cue 2002, we saw market (S&P 500 and DJIA) bottomed during the second half of the year. Similar market low can be seen in early 2003, before the market rallied through 2006, albeit a sharp correction in May-June, the bottom did not happen.
We shall wait and see what happen leading to 2010.
October, the bear killer
If our investment time horizon is 6 months, what is the best month to buy stock market index?
The answer is October. While the worst month to start buying is April.
Majority of major stock market buying points have begun in October. This has led to a market rally, on average, into the April-May time frame. Then the market is most likely to stagnant or go flat, or even decline. Sometimes there might be a substantial down move into the next October lows.
Why October? There may be 2 reasons. First, corporations announce quarter earnings, which tend to be dismal this time of year. Second, Federal Reserve starts to either decrease interest rates or increase the money supply in anticipation of Christmas sales.
The bond market (treasury bonds) usually leads the stock market. When bonds rally for a while, stock market will follow. The variable lag effect can be anywhere from 6 weeks to 6 months.
Bonds have most often rallied in October.
Also the vast majority of the time the Dow Jones Utility Index starts a big rally just about the time the stock market stops going up or goes into a sideways trading zone.
Generally, this usually begins around first week of April until first week of October each year.
Larry suggested a rolling investment program:
How to select the best stocks?
The best group of stocks to buy would be based on the following measures of value in the average or sector we are purchasing:
a) Lowest price,
b) highest yield, or
c) lowest price to sales ratio.
NOTE: Ideas from the book "The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years" by Larry R. Williams.
The US market appears to have repetitive tendencies to how it unfolds over the 10 years period. This is known as the decennial pattern which we can use to our advantage in timing the market.
The decade begins with year ending in ONE, follows by TWO, THREE and so on. It concludes with year ending in ZERO.
It is interesting to know that most major market highs have come in years ending in NINE (sell point?) and ZERO.
Based on average December prices, the annual return in years ending in ZERO are among the worst in the decade, after years ending in SEVEN (buy point?).
While years ending in FIVE have produced the best returns, follow by years ending in EIGHT.
Years ending in TWO and THREE are considered good buy points as well, as they lead into the phenomenal years ending in FIVE.
Incidentally, years ending in TWO and EIGHT have shown an unique ability to start major rallies.
The details on this study can be found at Wiley website.
Four Year Phenomenon
Larry Williams shared his observation of the Four-year cycle phenomenon: Every four years we expect a market bottom.
There was one in 1998. Cue 2002, we saw market (S&P 500 and DJIA) bottomed during the second half of the year. Similar market low can be seen in early 2003, before the market rallied through 2006, albeit a sharp correction in May-June, the bottom did not happen.
We shall wait and see what happen leading to 2010.
October, the bear killer
If our investment time horizon is 6 months, what is the best month to buy stock market index?
The answer is October. While the worst month to start buying is April.
Majority of major stock market buying points have begun in October. This has led to a market rally, on average, into the April-May time frame. Then the market is most likely to stagnant or go flat, or even decline. Sometimes there might be a substantial down move into the next October lows.
Why October? There may be 2 reasons. First, corporations announce quarter earnings, which tend to be dismal this time of year. Second, Federal Reserve starts to either decrease interest rates or increase the money supply in anticipation of Christmas sales.
The bond market (treasury bonds) usually leads the stock market. When bonds rally for a while, stock market will follow. The variable lag effect can be anywhere from 6 weeks to 6 months.
Bonds have most often rallied in October.
Also the vast majority of the time the Dow Jones Utility Index starts a big rally just about the time the stock market stops going up or goes into a sideways trading zone.
Generally, this usually begins around first week of April until first week of October each year.
Larry suggested a rolling investment program:
- Buy the DJIA in the last week of October of each year, exiting on the first Friday of April the next year.
- Purchase the 5 best Dow Jones Utility stocks of each year, holding until the first trading week of October.
How to select the best stocks?
The best group of stocks to buy would be based on the following measures of value in the average or sector we are purchasing:
a) Lowest price,
b) highest yield, or
c) lowest price to sales ratio.
NOTE: Ideas from the book "The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years" by Larry R. Williams.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
My Neighbour NameWee
A patriot by definition is someone who loves, supports, and defends one's country.
One shall not take a dig at the people, society and above all, the government.
One shall present the rosy bright side of the country only for others to see and hear.
One can sing praises of the leadership, emphasize achievements and stir up public morale.
While the grievance and disaffection shall be kept to oneself and oneself alone.
As one shall take it all in stride, be it social welfare suppression, cost of administration escalating, regressive tax increment, etc.
Namewee, a son of our neighbour, is one who does not listen.
Bountiful guts he has to post his songs online.
With the help of his musical talents, exposing a dose of critical frankness in the lyrics, the songs become popular and that may end him up in jail.
Here are some of his compositions:
Song 1 -- Muar Chinese
Song 2 -- Kawanku My Friends
Song 3 -- Negarakuku
Song 4 -- ***this is not composed by him***
Note: Namewee's blog is http://namewee.blogspot.com
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
How To Trade In Stocks
According to the past master in stock/commodities trading, Jesse Livermore, there are 3 strategies to note before you start to trade stocks in the market.
1. Timing
Adopt a top down approach. From looking the big market trend, then industry group trend, followed by tanden trading (sister stock) and finally the actual stock.
We trade along the line of least resistance - the trend.
We shall not argue with the trend.
We are looking for pivotal point to make a transaction for an opportunity to profit.
2. Money Management
Before we start trading, we shall maintain a cash reserve. Do not get ourselves fully exposed.
Look at the risk reward ratio - how much to gain for the capital we committed. Is the trade worth well our time and effort?
Implement a stop loss.
Keep in mind on how much we are prepare to lose in each trade and that will be our stop loss.
If things go wrong, we must exit before our capital can be wiped out.
Jesse recommended a stop loss of 10% while we may devise our own limit. But a stop loss is a MUST if we want to be a successful stock trader.
Break up our trade into stages. For example, if we are thinking to buy 1000 shares of a counter, we go in to buy 20% = 200 shares. If the outlook is clear and well, we go in to buy further 20% = 200 shares. Then another 20% and finally the remaining 40%.
This gives us a buffer of time to confirm we are making a right trade.
In an event of a trade goes wrong, we can exit and thus reduce the impact to our capital.
We shall never average losses, also known as average down. Instead, we shall average up. Stick with winners until a reason to sell.
If the share price goes against what we expected, this is enough reason to sell.
We do not put in any more good money after bad.
And one reminder about margin call - when the margin call reaches you, close your account - never meet a margin call.
3. Emotional Control
We have to control our sense of hope, greed and fear. We have to remain calm and rational with regards to stock market. We go into stock market for profits, not sentiments.
We can beat a horse race but we cannot beat the races.
We need to have patience and wait until the action of market itself confirms our opinion then we move in. Do not anticipate.
Also we do not to have to be in the market all the time.
Market is never wrong - opinions often are.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
NOTE: Ideas from the book "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore.
1. Timing
Adopt a top down approach. From looking the big market trend, then industry group trend, followed by tanden trading (sister stock) and finally the actual stock.
We trade along the line of least resistance - the trend.
We shall not argue with the trend.
We are looking for pivotal point to make a transaction for an opportunity to profit.
2. Money Management
Before we start trading, we shall maintain a cash reserve. Do not get ourselves fully exposed.
Look at the risk reward ratio - how much to gain for the capital we committed. Is the trade worth well our time and effort?
Implement a stop loss.
Keep in mind on how much we are prepare to lose in each trade and that will be our stop loss.
If things go wrong, we must exit before our capital can be wiped out.
Jesse recommended a stop loss of 10% while we may devise our own limit. But a stop loss is a MUST if we want to be a successful stock trader.
Break up our trade into stages. For example, if we are thinking to buy 1000 shares of a counter, we go in to buy 20% = 200 shares. If the outlook is clear and well, we go in to buy further 20% = 200 shares. Then another 20% and finally the remaining 40%.
This gives us a buffer of time to confirm we are making a right trade.
In an event of a trade goes wrong, we can exit and thus reduce the impact to our capital.
We shall never average losses, also known as average down. Instead, we shall average up. Stick with winners until a reason to sell.
If the share price goes against what we expected, this is enough reason to sell.
We do not put in any more good money after bad.
And one reminder about margin call - when the margin call reaches you, close your account - never meet a margin call.
3. Emotional Control
We have to control our sense of hope, greed and fear. We have to remain calm and rational with regards to stock market. We go into stock market for profits, not sentiments.
We can beat a horse race but we cannot beat the races.
We need to have patience and wait until the action of market itself confirms our opinion then we move in. Do not anticipate.
Also we do not to have to be in the market all the time.
Market is never wrong - opinions often are.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
NOTE: Ideas from the book "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
智慧二谏
(先主）刘备在蜀，时天旱，禁私酿，吏于人家，索得酿具，欲论罚。简雍与先主游，见男女行道，谓先主曰：彼欲行淫，何以不缚？先主曰：何以知之？对曰：彼有其具。先主大笑而止。
简雍，河北涿郡（今河北涿州市）人。三国时蜀国的大臣，刘备的妻舅。平时为人耿直，不拘小节，幽默风趣。刘备当上蜀国皇帝后，某年因为天旱无雨，粮食欠 收，所以他下命令禁止酗酒，也禁止酿酒，甚至连酿酒的工具也禁止保存。一经查出，与酿酒、酗酒同罪。禁令一下，雷厉风行，老百姓叫苦连天，但刘备只装作不 知道，一点也不放宽。
有一天，简雍同刘备出行，看见一对男女远远走来，简雍就向刘备说：“这对男女将犯淫罪，可以将他们拘捕法办。”刘备惊讶地问道：“你怎么断定他们会犯淫罪呢？”
简雍的回答妙不可言：“很简单，因为他们身上都有淫具啊！”
刘备听了，也为之忍俊不禁，大笑之后，遂略有所悟，于是下令取消了不准保有酿酒器具的禁令。
********** ********** *********** ********** **********
齐有得罪于景公者，公大怒。缚至殿下，召左右肢解之，敢谏者诛，晏子左手持头，右手磨刀，仰而问曰：古者明王圣主肢解人，不知从何处始。公离席曰：纵之，罪在寡人。
周朝，春秋时代的齐景公，在齐桓公之后，也是历史上的一位明主。他拥有历史上第一流政治家晏子——晏婴当宰相。
当时有一个人得罪了齐景公，齐景公乃大发脾 气，抓来绑在殿下，要把这人肢解。古代的“肢解”，是手脚四肢、头脑胭体，一节节地分开，非常残酷。同时齐景公还下命令，谁都不可以谏阻这件事， 如果有人要谏阻，便要同样地肢解。皇帝所讲的话，就是法律。
晏子听了以后，把袖子一卷，装得很凶的样子，拿起刀来，把那人的头发揪住，一边在鞋底下磨刀，做出一副要亲自动手杀掉此人，为皇帝泄怒的样子。然后慢慢地 仰起头来，向坐在上面发脾气的景公问道：“报告皇上，我看了半天，很难下手，好像历史上记载尧、舜、禹、汤、文王等这些明王圣主，要肢解杀人时，没有说明 应该先砍哪一部分才对？请问皇上，对此人应该先从哪里砍起？才能做到像尧舜一样地杀得好？”
齐景公听了晏子的话，立刻警觉，自己如果要做一个明王圣主，又怎么可以用此残酷的方法杀人呢！所以对晏子说：“好了！放掉他，我错了！”
简雍，河北涿郡（今河北涿州市）人。三国时蜀国的大臣，刘备的妻舅。平时为人耿直，不拘小节，幽默风趣。刘备当上蜀国皇帝后，某年因为天旱无雨，粮食欠 收，所以他下命令禁止酗酒，也禁止酿酒，甚至连酿酒的工具也禁止保存。一经查出，与酿酒、酗酒同罪。禁令一下，雷厉风行，老百姓叫苦连天，但刘备只装作不 知道，一点也不放宽。
有一天，简雍同刘备出行，看见一对男女远远走来，简雍就向刘备说：“这对男女将犯淫罪，可以将他们拘捕法办。”刘备惊讶地问道：“你怎么断定他们会犯淫罪呢？”
简雍的回答妙不可言：“很简单，因为他们身上都有淫具啊！”
刘备听了，也为之忍俊不禁，大笑之后，遂略有所悟，于是下令取消了不准保有酿酒器具的禁令。
********** ********** *********** ********** **********
齐有得罪于景公者，公大怒。缚至殿下，召左右肢解之，敢谏者诛，晏子左手持头，右手磨刀，仰而问曰：古者明王圣主肢解人，不知从何处始。公离席曰：纵之，罪在寡人。
周朝，春秋时代的齐景公，在齐桓公之后，也是历史上的一位明主。他拥有历史上第一流政治家晏子——晏婴当宰相。
当时有一个人得罪了齐景公，齐景公乃大发脾 气，抓来绑在殿下，要把这人肢解。古代的“肢解”，是手脚四肢、头脑胭体，一节节地分开，非常残酷。同时齐景公还下命令，谁都不可以谏阻这件事， 如果有人要谏阻，便要同样地肢解。皇帝所讲的话，就是法律。
晏子听了以后，把袖子一卷，装得很凶的样子，拿起刀来，把那人的头发揪住，一边在鞋底下磨刀，做出一副要亲自动手杀掉此人，为皇帝泄怒的样子。然后慢慢地 仰起头来，向坐在上面发脾气的景公问道：“报告皇上，我看了半天，很难下手，好像历史上记载尧、舜、禹、汤、文王等这些明王圣主，要肢解杀人时，没有说明 应该先砍哪一部分才对？请问皇上，对此人应该先从哪里砍起？才能做到像尧舜一样地杀得好？”
齐景公听了晏子的话，立刻警觉，自己如果要做一个明王圣主，又怎么可以用此残酷的方法杀人呢！所以对晏子说：“好了！放掉他，我错了！”
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Financial Fundamentals 2
How to calculate Lump Sum Pension.
Your company gives you an option of taking your pension as either a lump sum payment or a monthly check paid over life, which will you choose?
Usually a lump sum pension payment is the amount that company (pension actuary) thinks is equal to what you would recieve if you choose the monthly check for life option.
How do they make the calculation?
With the help of 2 concepts.
a) Present/future value of money
FVn = future value in year n
i = discount rate (expressed in decimal form)
n = number of years until future value occurs
is commonly called the discount multiplier
b) Probability that they are going to have to make the pension payment.
Here are the steps to find out the lump sum:
Step 1
The pension actuary determines the present value of each year's pension payments.
For example, assume you, the retiree, your current age is 62, with a lifetime pension of $12000 per year. We take 20-year government bond interest rate as 3.5% (this may not be the standard practice but this is the longest risk-free long term interest rate I can find).
Please note that the present value is the amount you need today, so if it was compounded, it would grow to each future $12000 payment.
Take the payment when you reach age 75 ( that is 13 years from now) , $7672.85 is needed today before it will grow to that $12000 in 13 years at 3.5%.
The pension actuary will make this calculations for every year from age 62 to 110.
Step 2
Next, the pension actuary will take each present value and multiply it by the probability that the company is going to have to make that payment.
These probability values are obtained by predicting the probability of a person at any age living to any future age. Take for example, there is about a 65% chance that a 62 year old will be alive at age 75. Hence, multiply the present value for age 75, that being $7672.85, by 0.65 . The result is $4987.35. This is called the probability weighted present value of a $12000 payment at age 75.
They will make this same calculation for each present value all the way to age 110.
Interesting to note the probability of being alive at age 110 is less than 1%, so the probability weighted present value is less than $23.
Then they will accumulatively add up these probability weighted present values. This sum is the lump sum equivalent of the month pension checks for life.
Effect of Interest Rate on the Lump Sum
In the event that the risk free long term interest rate has rose above 3.5%, you will notice the calculated lump sum payment has shrunk. And vice versa, in case interest rate drop below 3.5%.
Take note the lump sum is always being evaluated and calculated in the interest rate of that moment. When the interest rate rise, the lump sum gets smaller. When they do down, the lump sum gets bigger.
Therefore you may try to time your retirement for when you think interest rates will be at their lowest.
Your company gives you an option of taking your pension as either a lump sum payment or a monthly check paid over life, which will you choose?
Usually a lump sum pension payment is the amount that company (pension actuary) thinks is equal to what you would recieve if you choose the monthly check for life option.
How do they make the calculation?
With the help of 2 concepts.
a) Present/future value of money
where
PV = present valueFVn = future value in year n
i = discount rate (expressed in decimal form)
n = number of years until future value occurs
is commonly called the discount multiplierb) Probability that they are going to have to make the pension payment.
Here are the steps to find out the lump sum:
Step 1
The pension actuary determines the present value of each year's pension payments.
For example, assume you, the retiree, your current age is 62, with a lifetime pension of $12000 per year. We take 20-year government bond interest rate as 3.5% (this may not be the standard practice but this is the longest risk-free long term interest rate I can find).
Please note that the present value is the amount you need today, so if it was compounded, it would grow to each future $12000 payment.
Take the payment when you reach age 75 ( that is 13 years from now) , $7672.85 is needed today before it will grow to that $12000 in 13 years at 3.5%.
The pension actuary will make this calculations for every year from age 62 to 110.
Step 2
Next, the pension actuary will take each present value and multiply it by the probability that the company is going to have to make that payment.
These probability values are obtained by predicting the probability of a person at any age living to any future age. Take for example, there is about a 65% chance that a 62 year old will be alive at age 75. Hence, multiply the present value for age 75, that being $7672.85, by 0.65 . The result is $4987.35. This is called the probability weighted present value of a $12000 payment at age 75.
They will make this same calculation for each present value all the way to age 110.
Interesting to note the probability of being alive at age 110 is less than 1%, so the probability weighted present value is less than $23.
Then they will accumulatively add up these probability weighted present values. This sum is the lump sum equivalent of the month pension checks for life.
Effect of Interest Rate on the Lump Sum
In the event that the risk free long term interest rate has rose above 3.5%, you will notice the calculated lump sum payment has shrunk. And vice versa, in case interest rate drop below 3.5%.
Take note the lump sum is always being evaluated and calculated in the interest rate of that moment. When the interest rate rise, the lump sum gets smaller. When they do down, the lump sum gets bigger.
Therefore you may try to time your retirement for when you think interest rates will be at their lowest.
How to determine the Bond prices
The price of bond is calculated following the same accumulating of present values procedure used for calculating the lump pension payment.
In the case of our government issued bonds, the probability that payments might not be made is not an issue. This removes the probability factor from the equation.
Bond prices rise and fall with interest rate directly as its coupon is fixed after it is issued.
Stock Market Model
Price = STFL + ITFL + LTFL + FVT
STFL = short term feedback loop;
ITFL = intermediate term feedback loop;
LTFP = long term feedback loop;
FVT = Fair Value term.
Fair Value is represented symbolically by the term D/I (Dividends divided by Interest rate).
This tells us that stock prices equal a fair value modified and stretched by action of 3 feedback loops of 3 time domains.
You can think over it and see if it makes sense.
Note: Ideas extracted from book "Predict Market Swings with Technical Anlaysis" by Michael McDonald.
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